Laws: April, 2003 - Number #23

Migration. The UN's International Migration Report 2002 estimated there were 175 million migrants- defined as persons outside their country of birth or citizenship for 12 months or more. About 105 million or 60 percent of the migrants are in "developed countries," including 56 million in Europe, 50 million in Asia, and 41 million in North America. During the 1990s, the number of migrants in developed countries rose by 23 million or 28 percent, and immigration accounted for two-thirds of industrial country population growth.

Between 1995 and 2000, the more developed countries received nearly 12 million migrants from the less developed, about 2.3 million migrants a year, including 1.4 million a year in North America and 800,000 a year in Europe.

According to the UN, 44 percent of developed countries, and 39 percent of developing countries, had policies aiming to lower immigration levels.

The more developed regions are expected to have net migration of two million a year between 2000 and 2050, including 1.1 million annual net migrants in the United States, Germany (211,000 a year), Canada (173,000 a year), the United Kingdom (136,000 a year) and Australia (83,000 a year). The major net emigration countries are projected to be China (-303,000 a year), Mexico, (-267,000 a year), India (-222,000 a year), the Philippines (-184,000 a year) and Indonesia (-180,000 a year)

Population. The UN Population Division released new projections of the global population that expect the world's population to rise 50 percent by 2050, from six billion in 2000 to 8.9 billion in 2050. The world's population is expected to peak at less than 10 billion before beginning to decline. Fertility, the average number of babies per woman, is 5.0 in Africa; 2.5 in Asia; 1.3 in Europe; 2.5 in Latin America; and 1.9 in North America.

If fertility remains at these levels, the world's population could double by 2050, reaching 12.8 billion. However, the UN projects reduced fertility in most developing countries. By 2050, the medium variant projection assumes that 75 percent of developing countries will have will below-replacement fertility. The UN projected that there would be about 500 million fewer people in 2050 because of HIV/AIDS.

In 2000, the world's population of 6.1 billion was distributed as follows: Africa, 13 percent; Asia, 61 percent; Europe, 12 percent; Latin America, nine percent, and North America, five percent. By 2015, the world's urban population is projected to exceed the rural population for the first time in human history. Many developing countries are expected to receive a demographic dividend, as birth rates fall before large numbers of elderly need support. If there are jobs for youth entering the work force, as well as women who have fewer children, countries can grow very fast, as East Asia did during the 1980s and 1990s.

India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia will account for half the world's almost three billion population growth over the next 50 years. In 1950, there was one person in the developed world for each two persons in the developing world. In 2000, the ratio was 1 developed to 4 developing , and in 2050 it is projected to be 1 to 7.

Some 33 countries, mostly in Europe, are expected to have smaller populations in 2050 than they had in 2000, with, for instance, Russia and Ukraine 30 to 50 percent smaller. The 25-nation EU's annual population growth is equivalent to one week of population growth in India.

Between 1950 and 2000, the median age of the world's population rose from 24 to 26. By 2050, the median age is projected to rise from 37 in 2000 to 45 in 2050, when 17 industrial countries including Japan are expected to have a median age of 50 or more. In developing countries, the median age is projected to rise from 24 in 2000 to 36 by 2050.

UNFPA released a report that concluded that lower fertility and slower population growth is associated with faster economic growth and less poverty, largely because of the "demographic gift" to a society from large numbers of working age adults support relatively fewer children and elderly. (www.unfpa.org) Declining fertility was a key to the East Asian economic miracle in the 1980s and 1990s.

However, it appears that fertility can fall even without rising incomes, as in Asian countries that did not experience economic miracles, such as Bangladesh. The availability of contraception and changing attitudes seem to be more important than rising incomes in reducing fertility.

The world's residents will increasingly live in cities. The World Bank held a conference on urbanization, and urged governments to give cities the flexibility they need to solve problems locally. (www.worldbank.org/wbi/B-SPAN/sub_urban_research.htm)

Jobs. The number of unemployed workers rose from 100 million in 1990 to 180 million in 2002. According to Global Employment Trends, another 550 million people earn one dollar or less a day. At least a billion jobs need to be created globally over the next 10 years to absorb new workers and to reach the UN's objective of halving extreme poverty by 2015.

Remittances and Aid. The World Bank's Global Development Finance 2003 (GDF) Report estimated that migrant remittances to developing countries reached $80 billion in 2002, up from $60 billion in 1998. Remittances exceeded net foreign direct investment (FDI) of $143 billion for the first time in 2002; net FDI peaked in 1999 at $179 billion. GDF emphasized that "a positive investment climate is also important for effective utilization of workers' remittances." If the exchange rate is overvalued, or if there are barriers to investing, GDF said that remittances will likely be spent on immediate consumption.

Remittances tend to be counter-cyclical, since economic downturns encourage additional workers to migrate abroad and those already abroad increase the amount of money they send to families left behind. GDF noted that tighter restrictions on informal transfers and lower banking fees mean that remittances through the banking system are likely to continue to rise.

President George Bush increased US foreign aid to $18 billion in FY04, adding $2 billion in the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) to supplement the $16 billion distributed by the United States Agency for International Development. MCA funds will go only to countries with per capita annual incomes below $1,435 that meet performance standards in the areas of human rights, democracy and lack of corruption.

"Globalization and its Discontents" by Joseph Stiglitz argues that pro-globalization policies have the potential of accelerating growth, but only if undertaken properly and if they incorporate the history, culture and traditions of each individual country. Stiglitz argues that globalization has often been pushed by the IMF in cookie-cutter fashion, leaving poverty and inequality in its wake; he faults the Washington Consensus of the early 1990s for pushing globalization too fast and too far.

Stiglitz argues that, for economic liberalization to succeed, economic reforms must be implemented at the right speed and in the right sequence. Stiglitz argues for gradualism, for example, gradual trade liberalization including efforts to reduce unemployment, financial reforms that reduce inflation and create modern financial regulatory control agencies and, at the end of the process, opening the capital account and allowing money to flow in and out of the country. However, political reformers in Eastern Europe and elsewhere have embraced the "Big Bang" theory of economic reform.

Resources. The UN released a 600-page World Water Development Report in March 2003 that predicted up to seven billion of the world's 9.3 billion people in 60 countries could face water scarcity by 2050. The major cause of water scarcity is poor water management policies, including an over-reliance on large dams and shortsighted efforts to over-privatize the fresh water market. About 70 percent of the world's fresh water is used today for irrigation.

Many predict international disputes over water. More than 260 of the world's river basins are shared by at least two countries; these areas include 40 percent of the world's population.

The UN's goal is a 50 percent reduction in the proportion of people who lack reliable access to clean water (defined as access to at least 20 liters a person each day from a source within one kilometer of the person's home) by the year 2015.

Anthony Browne, "British population to grow by 7m," The Times, February 27, 2003. Gautam Naik, Leslie Chang and Joanna Slater, "Developing Nations Benefit from 'Demographic Dividend,'" Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2003. World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, Highlights (United Nations, February 2003) http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm. Stiglitz, Joseph E. 2002. Globalization and its Discontents. Norton.