Immigration Laws: November, 2001 - Number #21

The world's population rose from 1.6 billion in 1900 to six billion in 2000. Average life expectancy at birth more than doubled between 1900 and 2000, from 30 years to 65 years. Fertility levels for the world as a whole fell by more than 40 percent between the early 1950s and 2000--a drop equivalent to over two births per woman per lifetime, and sub-replacement fertility spread from Europe to East Asia. Fertility has declined in many areas, even where poverty and female illiteracy are widespread, as in Bangladesh, in Muslim societies such as Iran, and in countries that never adopted a national family planning program, such as Brazil.

The world's population in 2025 is expected to be 7.8 billion, when it is expected to be growing at a 0.8 percent rate, down from the current 1.3 percent rate. There are about 1.1 billion residents of what the UN calls more developed countries, and their population rose by 3.3 million in 2000. After 2017, deaths are expected to exceed births in today's more developed countries, and populations will decline unless there is immigration. The US Census Bureau projects that the median age in more developed countries will rise from 37 in 2000 to 43 in 2025.

In the 20th century, the world experienced a demographic transition, from a regimen of high birthrates and high death rates to one of low death rates and low birthrates. During the Depression, some demographers projected a shrinking Europe in the 1960s, not the baby boom that occurred. Similarly, it appears that the 1960s projections of a population explosion were wrong.

Slavery. Researcher Kevin Bales defines slavery as the complete control of a person for economic exploitation by violence or the threat of violence, and estimates that there were 27 million slaves in 2000, including 15 to 20 million are bonded laborers confined to farming jobs in India, Pakistan, and Nepal. Bales distinguishes three kinds of slavery: (1) debt bondage, in which a person pledges him or herself against a loan of money without defining the length and nature of the service; (2) chattel slavery, the condition when a person is captured, born or sold into permanent servitude; and (3) contract slavery: a worker has a contract, but is not free to leave his place of residence or employment.

Bales argues that the rising number of potential slaves has lowered their price, making them expendable people. In the southeastern US in the 1850s, when labor was scarce, the price of a slave was $1,000 to $1,800, or three times the average annual wage of US workers ($50,000 to $100,000 in 2000). In India, where land is scarce, rural residents who need to borrow money for emergencies often pledge themselves as collateral for the loan, often agreeing to work indefinitely to repay 500 to 1000 rupees ($30 to $60), with the lender determining when the debt is repaid.

Trade. The World Trade Organization's 142 member-nations are to gather November 9-13, 2001 in Qatar for talks aimed at reducing barriers to trade. The US, arguing that trade liberalization is the best antidote to the poverty and resentment that give rise to terrorism, says it wants to free up trade in textiles and agriculture, something that Europe and Japan are reluctant to do.

Developing nations want significant reductions in protection and subsidies for textiles and agriculture in industrial nations. The WTO says that industrial nations provide $300 billion a year in farm subsidies, and that subsidies account for 40 percent of farmers' incomes in industrial countries, limiting imports from developing countries and contributing to excess production worldwide that holds down global prices. The World Bank estimates that, if industrial countries eliminated their trade protections, developing countries would gain $43 billion in annual benefits.