Immigration Laws: April, 1995 - Number #5

As Congress debates what to do to reduce illegal immigration, there were several reviews of the level of illegal immigration, and the efforts of INS to reduce it.

Demographer Jeff Passel notes that ESTIMATES of number of illegal aliens in the US have fallen while the actual NUMBER increased. For example, estimates of six to 12 million illegal aliens were common in the late 1970s, even though it was later estimated that about 2.1 illegal aliens were included in the 1980 Census.

In 1985, Passel estimated that there were three to five million illegal aliens. Some two million were legalized in 1987-88, or about two-thirds of the illegal aliens in the US since 1982, and the number of illegal aliens was estimated at 2.2 million in 1988. However, the number then began to increase, reaching an estimated 3.4 million in October 1992, and 4 million at the end of 1994.

Between October 1986 and 1988, there was an especially sharp drop in the number and share of Mexican illegal aliens because so many Mexicans were legalized. Mexicans dropped from about 58 percent to 38 percent of the total population of illegal aliens in the US, and in California the estimated illegal alien population fell from 2.9 million to 800,000.

There are two broad strategies to combat illegal immigration. What might be called the "island" model is the policy of the UK and Australia, which have strict entry controls, but neither residence permits nor employer sanctions. The so-called "continental" strategy puts the primary emphasis on internal controls, usually with residence and employment permits.

The US has traditionally relied on a continental strategy, relying primarily on the Border Patrol to deter illegal entry, but an analysis by INS statistician Bob Warren of data on aliens who entered the US legally, and then stayed too long and became illegal aliens, suggests that most of the 3.4 million illegal aliens who were believed to be living in the US in October 1992 entered the US legally. These data suggest that the US may be pushed to move toward both island and continental strategies, beefing up both border controls and internal controls. The number of illegal aliens was increasing by about 300,000 per year between 1988 and 1992.

The INS in August 1994 adopted a strategic plan that shifts the focus from apprehending aliens to preventing the entry of illegal aliens. Some in Congress are pressing the INS to adopt the El Paso Hold-the-Line strategy of flooding the border with agents to deter illegal entries in California. According to some estimates, 8,000 to 9,000 agents concentrated on the 165 miles of border through which most illegals enter could dramatically reduce illegal immigration. The INS counters that Hold the Line is not appropriate in San Diego, where an estimated 99 percent of the illegal alien entrants are passing en route to an interior location such as Los Angeles, versus 35 percent in El Paso.

According to the INS, the San Diego strategy of using three lines of agents to apprehend all illegal entrants IS working. Aliens apprehended report that the price of being smuggled to Los Angeles has jumped 50 percent, from $300 to $450, and the GAO agreed with the INS in testimony on March 10 that smugglers are attempting to bring aliens into the US in other areas, especially Arizona.

In FY 93, the San Diego and El Paso Border Patrol sectors accounted for two-thirds of the 1.2 million southwest border apprehensions. In FY92, over half of all southwest border apprehensions occurred along only 18 of the 1,600 border miles--13 miles along the border between San Diego and Tijuana, Mexico, and five miles along the border between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. In response to the INS's new border control strategies, in FY94, the San Diego and El Paso's share of total southwest border apprehensions dropped from two-thirds in fiscal year 1993 to about one-half in fiscal year 1994.

The Border Patrol reopened in March the checkpoint on Interstate 5, 66 miles north of the US-Mexican border, to determine how many illegal aliens were getting into the US despite Operation Gatekeeper.

Marcus Stern, "Key INS officials grilled on border strategy," San Diego Union-Tribune, March 11, 1995.
Diego Ribadenebra, "Border Blockade Cuts Illegal Immigration," San Francisco Chronicle, March 17, 1995, A14.
Ronald Ostrow, "INS Reports on Border Crackdown, Los Angeles Times, March 10, 1995, A1.